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Ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-polypropylene yaseTshayina (PP) kuphelele nje kwiitoni ezingama-424,746 ngo-2020, nto leyo ngokuqinisekileyo ayingonobangela wengxwabangxwaba phakathi kwabathengisi abakhulu base-Asia nakuMbindi Mpuma.Kodwa njengoko itshathi engezantsi ibonisa, ngo-2021, i-China yangena kuluhlu lwabathengisi abaphuma ngaphandle, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle kuye kwafikelela kwi-1.4 yezigidi zeetoni.

Ukusukela ngo-2020, izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zaseTshayina zazilingana nezo zaseJapan naseIndiya.Kodwa ngo-2021, i-China yathumela ngaphandle nangaphezu kwe-United Arab Emirates, enenzuzo kwizinto eziluhlaza.

Akukho mntu ufanele ukumangaliswa, njengoko i-trajectory icacile ukususela ngo-2014 ngenxa yokutshintsha okukhulu kumgaqo-nkqubo.Ngaloo nyaka iye yagqiba ekubeni ikhulise ukuzimela kwayo yonke imichiza kunye neepolymers.

Unexhala lokuba utshintsho kwingqwalasela yotyalo-mali kwiintengiso zaphesheya kunye nokutshintsha kwi-geopolitics kunokukhokelela ekuboneleleni okungaqinisekanga kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, i-Beijing ixhalabile ukuba i-China kufuneka ibaleke kumgibe wengeniso ephakathi ngokuphuhlisa amashishini amaxabiso aphezulu.

Kwezinye iimveliso, kucingelwa ukuba i-China inokusuka ekubeni ngumrhwebi ophambili we-net ukuya kumthumeli-mpahla ngaphandle, ngaloo ndlela inyusa ingeniso yokuthumela ngaphandle.Oku kwenzeka ngokukhawuleza nge-terephthalic acid (PTA) ecocekileyo kunye ne-polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins.

I-PP ibonakala ingumgqatswa ocacileyo wokuzimela ngokupheleleyo, ngakumbi kune-polyethylene (PE), kuba unokwenza ipropylene feedstock ngeendlela ezininzi zokhuphiswano lweendleko, ngelixa ukwenza i-ethylene kufuneka uchithe iibhiliyoni zeedola ukwakha ukuqhekeka komphunga. iiyunithi.

Idatha yokuthunyelwa kwe-PP yonyaka ye-PP yonyaka kaJanuwari-Meyi ka-2022 (yahlulwe nge-5 kwaye yandiswe nge-12) icebisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-China unyaka wonke kunokunyuka ukuya kwi-1.7m ngo-2022. Ilizwe njengelizwe lesithathu elikhulu elithumela ngaphandle eAsia nakuMbindi Mpuma.

Mhlawumbi ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweTshayina unyaka wonke ngo-2022 kunokuba ngaphezulu kwe-1.7 yezigidi zeetoni, njengoko ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunyuke ukusuka kwi-143,390 yeetoni ukuya kwi-218,410 yeetoni ngoMatshi nango-Epreli ka-2022. , ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwanda ngo-Epreli kwaza kwawa phantse wonke unyaka.

Lo nyaka unokwahluka, nangona kunjalo, njengoko imfuno yendawo yahlala ibuthathaka kakhulu ngoMeyi, njengoko itshathi ehlaziyiweyo engezantsi isixelela.Kusenokwenzeka ukuba sibone ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwenyanga nenyanga kwimpahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle kude kuphele u-2022. Makhe ndichaze ukuba kutheni.

Ukususela ngoJanuwari 2022 ukuya ku-Matshi 2022, kwakhona ngonyaka (ukwahlulwe ngo-3 kwaye kwandiswe nge-12), ukusetyenziswa kwe-China kubonakala kukhula nge-4 ekhulwini kunyaka opheleleyo.Emva koko ngoJanuwari-Aprili, idatha ibonise ukukhula okuthe tyaba, kwaye ngoku ibonisa ukuhla kwe-1% ngoJanuwari-Meyi.

Njengesiqhelo, le tshati ingentla ikunika iimeko ezintathu zemfuno yonyaka opheleleyo ngo-2022.

Imeko 1 sesona siphumo silungileyo sokukhula kwe-2%.

I-Scenario 2 (esekelwe kuJanuwari-Meyi data) imbi 1%

Imeko yesi-3 ithatha isi-4%.

Njengoko ndaxubusha kwisithuba sam ngoJuni 22, yintoni eya kusinceda siqonde into eyenzekayo ngokwenene kwezoqoqosho yinto eyenzekayo ngokulandelayo kwixabiso lentengo phakathi kwe-polypropylene (PP) kunye ne-polyethylene (PE) kwi-naphtha e-China.

Kuze kube yiveki ephela ngo-17 Juni kulo nyaka, i-PP kunye ne-PE isasazeka yahlala isondele kumanqanaba abo aphantsi ukususela ekubeni saqala ukuhlaziywa kwexabiso lethu ngoNovemba 2002. amandla kulo naliphi na ishishini.

Idatha ye-macroeconomic yaseChina ixubene kakhulu.Okuninzi kuxhomekeke ekubeni i-China ingaqhubeka na nokukhulula amanyathelo angqongqo okutshixa, indlela yayo yokuphelisa iintlobo ezintsha zentsholongwane.

Ukuba uqoqosho luya lusiba mbi, musa ukucinga ukuba iPP iqala iya kuhlala kumanqanaba aphantsi abonwa ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi.Uvavanyo lwethu lwemveliso yasekhaya lucebisa umyinge opheleleyo wokusebenza we-2022 wepesenti ezingama-78 kuphela, xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lwethu lweepesenti ezingama-82 kulo nyaka.

Iifektri zaseTshayina ziye zanciphisa inzala kwiinzame zokubuyisela umva imida ebuthathaka kwiNortheast Asian PP abavelisi ngokusekelwe kwi-naphtha kunye ne-propane dehydrogenation, ngempumelelo encinci ukuza kuthi ga ngoku.Mhlawumbi ezinye ze-4.7 mtPA zomthamo omtsha wePP oza kwi-intanethi kulo nyaka ziya kulibaziseka.

Kodwa i-yuan ebuthathaka xa ithelekiswa nedola inokukhuthaza ukuthengiswa okukhulu kumazwe angaphandle ngokunyusa amazinga okusebenza kunye nokuvula iifektri ezintsha kwishedyuli.Kukwabalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba uninzi lwamandla amatsha eTshayina “lukwimo yobugcisa” isikali sehlabathi, sivumela ukufikelela kwimathiriyeli ekrwada enexabiso elikhuphisanayo.

Bukela i-yuan xa ithelekiswa nedola, eye yawa ngoku ngo-2022. Jonga iyantlukwano phakathi kwamaxabiso e-PP yaseTshayina naphesheya njengoko iyantlukwano iya kuba ngomnye umqhubi omkhulu worhwebo lokuthumela ngaphandle lwaseTshayina unyaka wonke.